Accuracy

How accurate is the SigningLab model.

Every completed signing represents a positive decision by the club. SigningLab evaluates those same signings independently and indicates which should be recommended and which should be avoided. While clubs average roughly 36% success on the signings they make, SigningLab reaches about 81% accuracy evaluating those same signings. Results are published every season, while the model’s internal architecture remains proprietary.

~81%
SigningLab’s accuracy evaluating signings — average across the 21 leagues, 2025
1.85×
Strict-success lift of recommended signings, 2024–2025
21
Leagues tracked
Ex-ante
Recorded before the outcome

Model accuracy by league (2025)

While clubs get, on average, roughly 36% of the signings they make right, SigningLab reaches about 81% accuracy when evaluating those same signings — identifying both the ones with good prospects and the ones that should be avoided. The strongest point of the methodology: SigningLab did not choose the players evaluated. The study covers the signings clubs actually made — not the players its technology rated highest — so the 81% does not come from selecting favorable cases. Full definitions and protocol are on the verification page; the per-league table is below.

League20242025SigningLab Model, period
Saudi Pro League90%88%89%
Primera A (Colombia)90%86%88%
Liga MX (Mexico)86%84%85%
Liga 1 (Peru)85%85%85%
Super Lig (Turkey)83%86%84%
Primera Division (Chile)85%83%84%
Brasileirao Serie B84%84%84%
Serie A (Italy)86%81%83%
Liga Profesional (Argentina)85%81%83%
Bundesliga81%81%81%
Premier League82%80%81%
Brasileirao Serie A80%81%80%
J1 League (Japan)79%81%80%
La Liga (Spain)79%81%80%
Eredivisie (Netherlands)82%78%80%
Ligue 1 (France)80%79%80%
Primeira Liga (Portugal)76%82%79%
MLS (USA)78%78%78%
Championship (England, 2nd tier)75%80%78%
Pro League (Belgium)78%76%77%
Premiership (Scotland)74%75%74%

Percentages rounded. The figure reported corresponds to SigningLab’s validated accuracy evaluating the signings clubs made in each league and period. The recommendation is always binary; the later outcome has three classes, and neutral is a tolerance band compatible with either signal. No model is correct every time; the commitment is reduced uncertainty and a record that can be audited.

How signing success is defined

A signing is counted as a success when the player performed at or above the baseline expected for the level of investment, read on minutes, performance, availability and collective contribution. Outcomes at the level expected count as neutral; clear underperformance counts as a miss. The same definition is applied across leagues and seasons so the comparison is consistent.

How the model is validated

Every projection is recorded and time-stamped before the outcome is known, so there is no future data and no hindsight. Validation is out-of-sample and walk-forward: the model is trained only on seasons before the one it is scored on, and each competition is calibrated on its own terms. The record is published season after season, whether the result is favorable or not.

The four figures, kept distinct

How to read the main figures: the roughly 36% is clubs’ average hit rate on the signings they make. The roughly 81% is SigningLab’s accuracy evaluating those same signings and indicating which should be recommended or avoided. Both are hit-rate indicators under the published criteria of the analysis.

Market hit rate. The share of all signings in a league that worked, with no model involved. Roughly one in three across the leagues and seasons we track.
Club hit rate. The same measure for a single club, used in the public rankings to compare how well clubs convert signings into performance.
PIS, the public index. A retrospective, public evaluation index used in the annual reports. It is a simplified, transparent version meant for general understanding, not the commercial model.
Model accuracy. The validated, ex-ante hit rate of the SigningLab predictive model, the figures on this page. The commercial models are distinct from the public index and are not disclosed in their internals.

Last updated: 2026. Source: SigningLab annual validation. Machine-readable league data at facts.html and rankings.json.