SigningLab · Annual Report

Signing Accuracy — J1 League 2025

Published on January 12, 2026

Executive Summary

257
Real signings
241
Evaluated
35%
Clubs' average hit rate
43
Successful
126
Unsuccessful

In total we identified 257 real signings by the clubs of J1 League in the 2025 season — academy promotions, loan returns, internal moves and transfers that never went through are excluded. Of these, 241 are included in the hit-rate calculation; 16 are youth investments (under-23 with no game time), classified separately. Signings without relevant minutes in the season count as unsuccessful.

League Analysis

Champions Kashima posted a hit rate of 56% on signings (8 evaluated), holding 3rd place in the accuracy ranking. The bottom four in the table had an average hit rate of 12% on signings — below the league average (35%), highlighting the link between recruitment quality and sporting performance.

FC Tokyo leads the accuracy ranking with 75% and Tokyo Verdy closes the list with 4%. p. over the clubs' decisions).

Club Ranking

ClubLeague positionSigningsEvaluatedSuccessfulFairUnsuccessfulHit rate %SigningLab*
1FC Tokyo11º98521
75%
75%
2Gamba Osaka66231
58%
100%
3Kashima88413
56%
100%
4Avispa Fukuoka12º99423
56%
67%
5Urawa1010433
55%
90%
6Kashiwa Reysol1916565
50%
94%
7Sanfrecce Hiroshima1211254
41%
82%
8Machida Zelvia1110406
40%
80%
9Vissel Kobe55203
40%
100%
10Cerezo Osaka10º1312255
38%
83%
11Yokohama F. Marinos15º77214
36%
86%
12Shimizu S-pulse14º232331010
35%
83%
13Yokohama FC18º262511113
26%
96%
14Fagiano Okayama13º343021117
25%
97%
15Kyoto Sanga109045
22%
100%
16Nagoya Grampus16º99117
17%
78%
17Kawasaki Frontale43012
17%
67%
18Shonan Bellmare19º14140311
11%
93%
19Albirex Niigata20º16150213
7%
100%
20Tokyo Verdy17º12110110
4%
100%

* SigningLab: hit rate of SigningLab’s verdicts (recommend or not recommend) on each club’s evaluated signings, projected at the time of signing.

The difference between Signings and Evaluated are youth investments (under-23 with no game time in the season), classified separately. Signings without relevant minutes are unsuccessful (Did not deliver).

Season Highlights

The ten signings with the greatest technical impact of the season, according to the Player Impact Score (PIS).

PlayerClubPosMinG+AAvg ratingRatingSigningLab
Léo CearáKashimaF246721+07.31Excellent
Matheus SávioUrawaM27474+77.12Excellent
Nobuteru NakagawaKashiwa ReysolM16713+46.03Excellent
Tomoya MikiAvispa FukuokaM24316+17.33Excellent
Alexander ScholzFC TokyoD14402+07.42Excellent
Tomoya AndoAvispa FukuokaD31954+07.11Excellent
Yoshio KoizumiKashiwa ReysolM29127+47.14Excellent
Ju-sung KimSanfrecce HiroshimaD6491+15.31Excellent
Sota NakamuraSanfrecce HiroshimaF21296+67.07Excellent
Ryuho KikuchiMachida ZelviaD7092+05.19Excellent

Methodology

Club assessment — the universe of signings

The report considers exclusively genuine signings for the first-team squad, identified by the player's effective incorporation into the group between seasons. Excluded from the universe are: academy promotions, loan returns, internal administrative moves and transfers recorded but never completed. The aim is to measure the quality of market decisions — and those alone.

Player Impact Score (PIS)

Each evaluated signing receives a score from 0 to 100 that combines four observable technical dimensions: individual performance (average match ratings over the season), output (goals, assists and decisive actions adjusted for game time), collective performance (starting status and correlation with the club's results) and availability (volume of matches, adjusted for interruptions). High-impact players with reduced game time are promoted through an alternative efficiency criterion.

Outcome classification

The rating tiers are: Excellent and Good (successful signings — a full point in the index), Fair (intermediate performance — half a point) and Below expectations / Did not deliver (unsuccessful signings). Two categories sit outside the calculation, for distinct reasons: Injury (a serious injury prevented a fair assessment) and Investment (an under-23 player with low game time — the return depends on development and cannot be counted for or against the club in this cycle). Signings that did not reach relevant game time in the season are classified as unsuccessful, reflecting the sporting cost of the decision.

A note on scope

This is SigningLab's public, simplified model, developed for transparent retrospective market assessment. SigningLab's commercial solutions for partner clubs use a substantially larger set of variables and dedicated predictive mechanisms, and are not fully reflected in this document.

Appendix — Signings by club

* Youth investment (under-23, no game time in the season) — outside the hit-rate calculation.

Albirex Niigata (16 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Taiki Arai31165710Below expectations
Jason Geria28145600Did not deliver
Ryuga Tashiro23135001Did not deliver
Eiji Shirai15134220Fair
Abdelrahman Boudah1488901Did not deliver
Daisuke Yoshimitsu1963000Did not deliver
Matheus Moraes1261332Fair
Takuya Shimamura1360311Did not deliver
Motoki Ohara1251400Did not deliver
Kakeru Funaki746800Below expectations
Hiroto Uemura1445800Did not deliver
Yamato Wakatsuki1713910Did not deliver
Miguel Silveira *88810Investment
Kodai Mori45500Did not deliver
Riku Ochiai52300Did not deliver
Shosei Okamoto5000Did not deliver

Avispa Fukuoka (9 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Tomoya Ando37319540Excellent
Tomoya Miki29243161Excellent
Shintaro Nago38241425Good
Kazuki Fujimoto31186613Below expectations
Takumi Kamijima32180610Fair
Yuma Obata24180000Good
Hiroki Akino3079701Below expectations
Shosei Usui1273230Fair
Ichika Maeda61100Did not deliver

Cerezo Osaka (13 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Shinnosuke Hatanaka34289800Good
Koki Fukui37269900Fair
Rafael Ratão362583183Good
Motohiko Nakajima36228352Fair
Thiago Andrade38184544Fair
Dion Cools1792321Fair
Ayumu Ohata1174000Below expectations
Rikito Inoue1470300Below expectations
Shion Homma2067002Fair
Kyohei Yoshino1740300Did not deliver
Takumi Nakamura93600Did not deliver
Jaroensak Wonggorn1000Did not deliver
Go Kambayashi *0000Investment

FC Tokyo (9 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Kein Sato36222675Excellent
Kento Hashimoto28194302Good
Marcelo Ryan30175281Fair
Alexander Scholz16144020Excellent
Sei Muroya17139301Fair
Seung-gyu Kim14126000Good
Motoki Nagakura1276241Good
Marcos Guilherme1257600Below expectations
Kyota Tokiwa *1816800Investment

Fagiano Okayama (34 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Svend Brodersen37328100Fair
Ataru Esaka38290965Excellent
Daichi Tagami31276100Fair
Yugo Tatsuta28243201Fair
Ibuki Fujita27230701Fair
Lucão38211151Fair
Kota Kudo32196001Fair
Hijiri Kato30177103Fair
Ryo Tabei28164215Good
Kamiya Yuta37154713Fair
Masaya Matsumoto34153210Below expectations
Kaito Abe31147100Below expectations
Yoshitake Suzuki21146500Below expectations
Ryunosuke Sato21141451Fair
Kazunari Ichimi35137450Below expectations
Hiroto Iwabuchi35109830Did not deliver
Yanagi Takahiro2694812Below expectations
Eiji Miyamoto1178001Fair
Ryunosuke Sato763011Fair
Rui Sueyoshi1124000Did not deliver
Werik Popó1723800Did not deliver
Ryo Takeuchi2318800Did not deliver
Noah Browne1614700Did not deliver
Yasutaka Yanagi1214600Did not deliver
Goro Kawanami1712300Did not deliver
Gleyson33600Did not deliver
Riku Saga72500Did not deliver
Junki Kanayama61400Did not deliver
Yuji Wakasa51000Did not deliver
Ryunosuke Ota *21000Investment
Keita Saito1100Did not deliver
Masato Sasaki *8000Investment
Yoko Iesaka *4000Investment
S. Sumi *0000Investment

Gamba Osaka (6 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Makoto Mitsuta35264920Good
Deniz Hümmet32177373Fair
Shuto Abe15125421Fair
Kanji Okunuki1440511Fair
Shogo Sasaki1433800Did not deliver
Ryo Hatsuse533202Good

Kashima (8 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Léo Ceará342467210Excellent
Ryuta Koike30234413Good
Tae-hyeon Kim37218301Fair
Ryoya Ogawa19102702Good
Élber1370411Good
Rick1000Did not deliver
Yuji Kajikawa38000Did not deliver
Kaito Chida13000Did not deliver

Kashiwa Reysol (19 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Ryosuke Kojima38342000Good
Yoshio Koizumi36291274Excellent
Wataru Harada32272120Fair
Tojiro Kubo31254274Excellent
Nobuteru Nakagawa25167134Excellent
Masaki Watai29153612Below expectations
Daiki Sugioka1894902Fair
Hayato Nakama3394323Fair
Riki Harakawa2093301Fair
Seiya Baba1757300Fair
Yusuke Segawa1451531Good
Yudai Konishi629811Fair
Yota Komi *1111800Investment
Shumpei Naruse39000Did not deliver
Haruki Saruta8000Did not deliver
Kengo Nagai11000Did not deliver
T. Kuwata *0000Investment
Daiki Sakata0000Did not deliver
Y. Furusawa *0000Investment

Kawasaki Frontale (4 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Filip Uremović1179400Did not deliver
Lazar Romanić925620Fair
Ryota Kamihashi *1210001Investment
Rick1800Did not deliver

Kyoto Sanga (10 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Hidehiro Sugai38267024Fair
Masaya Okugawa32129372Fair
João Pedro Mendes26122210Fair
Shun Nagasawa2887333Fair
Patrick2367000Below expectations
Léo Gomes1335500Did not deliver
Mitsuki Saito511900Did not deliver
Barreto52400Did not deliver
Kodai Nagata *111200Investment
Kentaro Kakoi31000Did not deliver

Machida Zelvia (11 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Hiroyuki Mae34278902Good
Daihachi Okamura32270442Excellent
Takuma Nishimura30219074Good
Ryuho Kikuchi1370920Excellent
Asahi Masuyama1535200Did not deliver
Hotaka Nakamura534510Did not deliver
Neta Lavi816400Did not deliver
Tatsuya Morita339000Did not deliver
Tomoki Imai2000Did not deliver
Yoshiaki Arai6000Did not deliver
Kaung Zan Mara *0000Investment

Nagoya Grampus (9 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Yota Sato37236850Good
Teruki Hara30217630Fair
Yuya Asano3077001Below expectations
Yudai Kimura1463010Did not deliver
Daniel Schmidt1163000Below expectations
Daiki Miya1135000Below expectations
Gen Kato2425700Did not deliver
Daichi Sugimoto4000Did not deliver
Tsuyoshi Kodama0000Did not deliver

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (12 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Ryo Germain36302443Fair
Satoshi Tanaka28228011Fair
Sota Nakamura32212966Excellent
Naoki Maeda32100611Below expectations
Kosuke Kinoshita2086362Fair
Daiki Suga3480812Fair
Valère Germain2776031Fair
Ju-sung Kim1164911Excellent
Shion Inoue1922000Did not deliver
Jeong Min-ki30000Did not deliver
Cailen Hill *3000Investment
Yudai Tanaka5000Did not deliver

Shimizu S-pulse (23 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Matheus Bueno37331612Good
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi33276410Fair
Sodai Hasukawa33253100Below expectations
Yuya Oki38216000Fair
Kai Matsuzaki36187045Fair
Capixaba28186422Fair
Yutaka Yoshida27132101Fair
Togo Umeda22126000Good
Yuji Takahashi19122500Below expectations
Kengo Kitazume30119301Fair
Shinya Yajima32105611Fair
Toshiki Takahashi14104551Good
Hikaru Nakahara3399222Fair
Min Tae Kim963000Below expectations
Mateus Brunetti860200Did not deliver
Masaki Yumiba2250901Fair
Kazuki Kozuka2043720Fair
Ahmed Ahmedov1324200Did not deliver
Kento Haneda2520300Did not deliver
Douglas Tanque1514310Did not deliver
Alfredo Stephens913300Did not deliver
Rick16800Did not deliver
Haruto Hidaka2000Did not deliver

Shonan Bellmare (14 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Tomoya Fujii35207300Did not deliver
Hiroaki Okuno26116901Fair
Hiroya Matsumoto15114300Did not deliver
Yutaro Oda2590610Did not deliver
Shinya Nakano1081801Below expectations
Shusuke Ota1168710Below expectations
William Popp1463000Fair
Rio Nitta1659712Fair
Zé Ricardo1141300Did not deliver
Soki Tamura821200Did not deliver
Shun Yoshida918000Did not deliver
Tatsunari Nagai4000Did not deliver
Rick1000Did not deliver
K. Itohara0000Did not deliver

Tokyo Verdy (12 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Rei Hirakawa36228600Fair
Yuya Fukuda29166212Below expectations
Yosuke Uchida1171300Did not deliver
Shuhei Kawasaki2234010Did not deliver
Shoji Toyama1028000Did not deliver
Issei Kumatoriya2420510Did not deliver
Shimon Teranuma1114700Did not deliver
Kaito Suzuki *2510900Investment
Inoue Ryota48600Did not deliver
Taiju Yoshida55100Did not deliver
Yuya Nagasawa38000Did not deliver
Hiroki Mawatari0000Did not deliver

Urawa (10 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Danilo Boza36315010Good
Matheus Sávio37274747Excellent
Takuro Kaneko33227514Excellent
Taishi Matsumoto34133732Fair
Isaac Thelin1056120Fair
Hiiro Komori1247330Fair
Kenta Nemoto1437610Good
Motoki Nagakura1915011Did not deliver
Hiroki Abe22501Did not deliver
Shun Yoshida1000Did not deliver

Vissel Kobe (5 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Erik30178284Good
Katsuya Nagato19145101Excellent
Gustavo Klismahn2714900Did not deliver
Caetano1211400Did not deliver
Ren Komatsu75401Did not deliver

Yokohama F. Marinos (7 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Kaina Tanimura15101160Good
Jordy Croux1284325Good
Dean David1331230Fair
Yuri Araújo1130101Below expectations
George Onaiwu119600Did not deliver
Rick1000Did not deliver
Eitaro Matsuda0000Did not deliver

Yokohama FC (26 signings)

PlayerMatchesMinutesGoalsAssistsRating
Kota Yamada32256321Fair
Kaili Shimbo38254502Fair
Lukian31210031Fair
Makito Ito35207820Fair
Akito Fukumori37202902Excellent
Kosuke Yamazaki34196501Fair
Solomon Sakuragawa36175343Fair
Yoshiaki Komai21146601Fair
João Paulo23128611Fair
Musashi Suzuki23121021Below expectations
Jakub Słowik13108000Fair
Toma Murata2475700Did not deliver
Junya Suzuki2673700Fair
Keisuke Muroi1663120Did not deliver
Adailton1461430Fair
Takanari Endo2132501Did not deliver
Naoya Komazawa928500Did not deliver
Ryo Kubota1126710Below expectations
Phelipe Megiolaro2118000Did not deliver
Koki Kumakura *1213500Investment
Yoshihiro Nakano125900Did not deliver
Kaito Mori32800Did not deliver
Michel42100Did not deliver
Masaki Endo2000Did not deliver
Tsubasa Shibuya1000Did not deliver
Ryo Ishii5000Did not deliver